Two days ago the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Almaty with the OSCE mediator foreign ministers to discuss the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. After the meeting Azerbaijan said it was unsuccessful, OSCE made a statement and Armenia said the statement was a yellow card to Azerbaijan. OSCE states that the final decision rests with the leadership of the two countries, but the problem is that those two countries may not be able to solve it alone.
OSCE's Minsk group, which mediates the Nagorno Karabakh problem, in a statement said any fair solution should be based on the Madrid Principles. It also added that all of these principles are to be perceived as an integrated whole and that "any attempt to select some elements over others would make it impossible to achieve a balanced solution." The closing announcement of the statement reads that while they will support the sides the mediators urge a greater spirit of compromise and that "the primary responsibility to put an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict still remains with Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders."
The problem is that the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan may not alone solve this issue, despite the achievement of holding the ceasefire for already 16 years without peacekeeping force. No matter how much one of the side genuinely wants a peace, unless both really want it and at least respect the Madrid proposals the peace will not come. Any resumption of hostilities will last for generations.
Serbia and Kosovo would have never been able to resolve the conflict unless the visionary recommendation of the then Finish President Martti Ahtisaari, who called on the superpowers to recognize the independence of Kosovo. The man understood that the core of the problem is the status of Kosovo. Today we have peace in the Balkans.
While we have tried to be impartial in our reporting and follow the truth, it's becoming harder and harder not to blame one of the sides in its non-constructive and aggressive position that does not contribute to peace-building. Madrid Principles call on the conflicting sides to resolve the issue without the use of force or without the threat of the use of force. Hillary Clinton came to Azerbaijan and Armenia two weeks ago and in a very direct way said the use of force is "inadmissible." OSCE statement also calls on refraining from the threat of the use of force and that it will bring only suffering and devastation. In other words, the farther we go from the threat of the use of force the closer we will bring the two nations together in building trust.
Yet, Azerbaijan and its leadership is at it again.
"This is the last chance for Armenia to leave the occupied lands voluntarily for the sake of its own future and its own security,” threatened Azeri President Ilham Aliyev during the inauguration of a center for the so-called “Azeri Community of Nagorno-Karabakh,” reported the Turan news agency. “What remains for Azerbaijan to do is to use right of a country subject to aggression and to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied lands by force,” says the member of Azerbaijani parliament Aynur Jamalgizi to a Turkish News website called The History of Truth.
"Azerbaijani state and people will never grant a status to Nagorno-Karabakh that can separate it from Azerbaijan," said the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in his opening remarks at the cabinet meeting of July 13. Yet, the Madrid principles, to which Azerbaijan has agreed, says nothing about Azerbaijani people granting a status to Nagorno Karabakh. They simply state that the final status of Nagorno Karabakh will be determined by a "legally binding expression of will" of its population.
On the other hand, while there is a significant opposition in Armenia against the Madrid principles, the country is not threatening a use of force. Is not saying it categorically rejects the return of the liberated territories from where Azerbaijan in 1991-92 was bombing the civil population of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia's position is that the problem is the final status of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and let's get to the referendum and let its people decide their own future according to the UN Charter.
Thus, we have one side constantly threatening the use of force and interpreting the solution to the problem in terms of "granting" or not granting a status. On the other side we have a country that says, let's seriously get to the problem and solve the problem rather than the symptoms.
First, there is this difference between the sides. Second, there is the issue of the societies that are not being prepared for peace. While the Armenian society is relatively less hostile against the people of Azerbaijan because of the lack of the threat of using the force by the Armenian leadership, this is not enough to bring the two societies together and closer. This desire to make peace based on compromise must be mutual.
This is where there comes the need of a visionary mediation. It seems that the OSCE Minsk Group has been very neutral up to this point. However, there comes a time to look at the problem and opening speak about the side that is slowly becoming an impediment to the conflict resolution. It will not mean taking side, but rather showing a strong leadership toward making peace.
The superpowers failed to make peace between Turkey and Armenia because Turkey did not back down from saying the normalization of relations with Armenia is conditioned with the latter normalization with Azerbaijan. While the two protocols that Turkey signed with Armenia have not relations to Nagorno Karabakh or Azerbaijan, Turkey's position is pretty much understood. Now it's time to understand that Armenia will not liberate the regions surrounding Nagorno Karabakh unless there is a clear roadmap about the future status of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia even recently offered to sign a non-aggression pact with Azerbaijan, which the latter refused to.
The problem of the conflict is the final legal status of the people of Nagorno Karabakh, and let's start talking about how this. We call on the OSCE mediators to start openly talk about the referendum. When will it take place. Where will it take place. Who will participate in? After the status is solved, all issues will solve very quickly. Look at Kosovo. After only few years of its independence and recognition there is peace in the Balkans and Serbia is not threatening to take Kosovo back with force and is not threatening the use of Force. The Caucasus needs that for the Nagorno Karabakh too, to get lasting peace.
Written by Armen Hareyan
HULIQ.com
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