Azerbaijan Better Prepare Its Public For Karabakh Independence

The opposite is denial and conflict, which promises nothing.

Armenia says we don't want conflict, but are prepared to stand up for what we believe is right. And if Azerbaijan wants conflict then it puts itself in direct violation of Helsinki Act of non-use of force and UN's charter of the right of peoples' self-determination.

The international mediators in the Karabakh talks -- Russia, France and the United States -- issued a special statement at the summit of G8 group of leading economies in Italy last week urging all sides to step up work on a compromise deal.

However, the president of Azerbaijan poured cold water on prospects of reaching a breakthrough in Moscow during a speech in London on Monday. He said that while the negotiations were "more promising", Baku still ruled out any talk of independence for the region.

"We are ready to grant the highest possible level of autonomy for those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh within the framework of a sovereign Azerbaijani state," he said.

After saying this he sits down and negotiates the status of Nagorno Karabakh with the president of Armenia last weekend in Moscow. While there is no result, the parties have agreed to take a break until October of 2008. How they can use this time remains to be seen.

Armenian majority of Nagorno Karabakh is determined to exercise its right of self-determination and will stand up for independence. Although the conflict is not religious in nature, the Armenians are Christians, Azerbaijan is Musilm. In the preceding decades before the conflict the Armenian majority has of Nagorno Karabakh has been repeatedly oppressed by the suppressive regime of Azerbaijan. In 1991 just months before the breakup of the Soviet Union, the people of Nagorno Karabakh voted in a national referendum for the independence of the region from Azerbaijan.

The situation is much like the one in Kosovo. Observers say that if Kosovo's independence was rightly recognized, same should apply for Nagorno Karabakh. This will remove the danger of conflict.

The conflict is a big No No for the region. It can have far reaching consequences and the mediators and politicians should do everything possible to prevent it.

Armenia, which is Nagorno Karabakh's guarantor is a member of the CSTO (CIS Countries collective scrutiny organization). Turkey, which has ethnic ties to Azerbaijan is a member of NATO. Therefore, no one should allow this frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh to rise to the level of conflict.

Now the parties have taken timeout. “The influence of the United States and Russia should not be overestimated. There is a conflict between two countries where mediators have a limited commission. Armenia will not surrender lands, Nagorno Karabakh will never be a part of Azerbaijan. What can they do? Just wait some 20 or 40 more years?” said Alexey Mitrofanov, member of Russian State Duma.

How will Azerbaijan and the mediators use this timeout will be seen. Armenia has said that the principles that were made public but the mediator countries are basis for negotiation. Azerbaijan in London, as we mentioned above, has rejected them. Accepting them means accepting the right of self-determination right of Nagorno Karabakh, which will indeed vote for independence.

Now Azerbaijan has several options

1. Prepare for a major conflict to regain Nagorno Karabakh.

This is a major no no as we explained above. Major powers and the forward looking statement and the public should do ever tying to prevent this from happening. The conflict will be about lighting to the last soldier and will not bring any solution.

2. Postpone the resolution of the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh for decades.

This is not a good option either. The recent events between Georgia, South Ossetia and Russia showed that frozen conflicts are very dangerous and can be sources of very serious problems overnight. They also lead to forced solution. This option is not good for the future of the region. There will not be serious investments in the entire region if there is a fear that frozen conflicts are not solved and may one day be defrosted.

3. Prepare the public to recognize Nagorno Karabakh's right of self-determination.

This is the right path to choose for Azerbaijan and for the future of the region. The right of the Armenian people of Nagorno Karabakh has so much been oppressed that there is no way Nagorno Karabakh will agree to be in federation with Azerbaijan. It's time for all to wake up and acknowledge this reality. Therefore, it's best to stand behind the UN Charter of self-determination and prepare the public that this needs to be done. The benefits of this option are the following. Azerbaijan can peacefully recover most of its regions that have been liberated by Nagorno Karabakh's army to secure the peaceful life of the people of Nagorno Karabakh. This 3rd option will lead to speedy peace with Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia. It will ensure the peaceful coexistence of the people of the region and the common development based on shared values of human rights, democracy and good neighborly relationship.

Written by Armen Hareyan