Place your bets on housing - or don't

According to a New York Times article by Robert Schiller, of the famed Standard and Poors/Case Schiller Index, the extreme vacillations of the real estate market have created a nation of housing speculators. No longer are we a nation of just plain folks standing on the sidelines watching the landed gentry become wealthier. Instead, says Schiller, we’ve evolved into a determined group of real estate market timers.

There are those rushing to beat the $8,000tax credit deadline on November 30. (By the way, if you’re one of those people, today is probably your last day to find your new home and get it under contract, because you’ll probably need around 45 days from contract to close.) Others are watching the upsurges of housing sales numbers and the minute upticks in prices around the country, and trying to time their buys to a sudden drop or their sales to a sudden rise.

More important, is that Schiller says his surveys are pointing in a positive direction. The hopes that people had for a housing market stimulus after the new President was elected have come true in many cases. Americans appear to believe that house prices will continue to increase in the near and long term.

Whether or not this optimism signals another housing bubble, is not yet clear. What is clear, however, is that the formerly moribund real estate market is showing continuing legs. Housing inventories around the nation have declined from a 29 month supply 2 years ago to a 9 month supply today. In a stable market we typically see a 6-7 month supply of homes.

But, before we all panic at the thought of another run-up in housing, the short sellers among you can take some small comfort in the fact that the market wavered just a bit. DSnews.com reported that nationwide, home prices trended own 0.2 percent during September. But, for those who are ready to go long on the real estate market, the number of foreclosures carried by Bank of America/Countrywide has been drastically reduced from a high of 21,500 back in November of 2008 to a current count of only 5950 today.

Whether these foreclosures have been snapped up by speculators or by first time home buyers is anybody’s guess. However, there is one thing that is certain: many of those former foreclosures have already gone back into the market and were resold for more than investors paid for them

Written by Marc Jablon, Realty Associates
marcjablon@yahoo.com / 561 / 213 - 6139
www.jablonrealestate.com/