Voters in Maine have been casting ballots all week, and pundits assume Mitt Romney will come out the winner, but some data may cast doubts on that foregone conclusion.
Pundits have assumed that Romney will win the primary in Maine simply because of geography. They reason that since he’s from Massachusetts, another New England state, the people of Maine will vote for him with a kind of “favorite son” mentality. In addition, polls taken last fall, showed his favorability with voters as high as 70 percent in some cases. However, other dynamics are at play here.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) has run national polls among the four remaining GOP candidates. According to their survey results, Rick Santorum is still riding high with 38 percent of the vote to 23 percent for Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich registers on the scale with 17 percent and Ron Paul comes in last with 13 percent. They claim that 64 percent of the voters see him favorably while only 22 percent see him negatively. At the same time, Romney and Gingrich have only 44 percent favorability. Among voters who identify themselves as “very conservative,” Santorum gets 53 percent of while Gingrich only gets 20 percent, Romney 15 percent. Santorum also scores a high 51 percent with Tea Party voters, a clear contrast with Gingrich who only gets 24 percent and 12 percent for Romney. Among Evangelicals, he garners 45 percent of the vote while Gingrich gets 21 percent and Romney gets 18 percent.
Once upon a time Gingrich led in all those groups, but perhaps the recent airing of his domestic dirty laundry has led people in those groups to look around for another candidate who more reflects their values both personally and publicly. If Gingrich drops out, PPP polls show that 58 of his supporters will flock to Santorum, while only 22 percent would move to Romney and 17 percent to Ron Paul. Yet, the numbers continue to remain fluid as 52 percent of likely voters say they’re open to changing their minds. Only 48 percent say they're solidly committed to their current candidate choice.
Maine’s caucuses took place all during the week and the turnout has proven exceptionally low. When the votes are recorded and reported tonight, it will be interesting to see how that vote reflects the current national polls. Some seem to think that Santorum will walk away with win number five and leave Romney in the dust.
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