Alarming Increase In 99ers If Unemployment Extension Bill Fails

The number of 99ers in America is supposedly somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.4 million, a number some believe is heavily weighted in optimism. But no amount of optimism can make up for the 3.3 million more 99ers that will be created if an unemployment extension reauthorization isn't passed by Congress.

COMMENTARY | By June 2, the number of long-term unemployed individuals that will have exhausted their unemployment extension benefits will increase by over 3.3 million, according to a recently released report by the bipartisan Congressional Joint Economic Committee. That is, the number will increase if Congress does not approve a reauthorization for another extension. Added to the existing number of long-term unemployed that have already fallen off the unemployment rolls, the number of 99ers in the country rises precipitously in just three months to a minimum of 5 million and perhaps hundreds of thousands more.

How is it that there are so many 99ers? Simply put: A person becomes a 99er once their unemployment extension benefits run out, regardless of the number of weeks that the individual actually received benefits. It is a simple, all-inclusive term to describe the continuing out-of-work status of a jobless individual that at one time received unemployment benefits. The term "99er" arose from the maximum number of weeks that existed in some states (not all states allowed from such an extended period) where an individual was eligible for unemployment extension benefits offered in addition to the regular (in most states) 26 weeks (half a year) of unemployment.

The trouble facing many unemployed persons is that long-term unemployment is viciously cyclical, where age discrimination, time unemployed (employers often count against a job seeker gaps in employment), and job availability in a given vocation have contributed greatly to the numbers of the continuing and long-term unemployed.

And without a reauthorization of the emergency and extension benefits programs, which were given a two-month allowance in December and will expire at the end of February, millions will fall off the unemployment benefits rolls and become 99ers.

Some will get jobs where they are underemployed, accepting employment in jobs where they make less than what they made in their previous jobs. Many will remain jobless in an economy that is adding only a little over a hundred thousand jobs per month, although Bureau of Labor Statistics January reports indicated that nearly 250,000 jobs were added in the first month of the year. Promising, but nowhere near the number needed to keep up with the long-term unemployed that stand to lose their benefits in just the next three months.

The long-term unemployed make up a staggering near-43 percent of the total jobless population.

The National Employment Law Project, a national advocacy organization for the jobless and those making low wages, has noted that the Joint Economic Committee met last week to consider a one-year reauthorization package. However, the measure under consideration the number of weeks and eligibility. Such legislation would ensure that the unemployed would have a more difficult time receiving benefits in the future.

It is not difficult to understand the ramifications of a failure to reauthorize. The short-term effect on the national economy would be devastating. The long-term effect could be far worse. For instance, the non-partisan Government Budget Office has estimated that each dollar provided in unemployment benefits for individuals to acquire necessities prompts a cascade of economic spending, making the dollar equivalent to $1.90 of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Over $61 billion was provided in 2011 to the jobless. The absence of the benefit dollar would not only be a noticeable drag on the GDP but on each individual that lost their unemployment benefits as well.

The population of 99ers was given an official count in January 2011 when the Congressional Research Office estimated their number at 1.4 million, a number that many found to be far lower than the actual population. There is little reason to believe that the number has greatly decreased in the past year, given the sluggishness of the economy and the inability for the long-term jobless to acquire meaningful employment. And then there is the added consideration that, since 99ers drop off of the unemployment rolls, the tens of thousands that have exhausted their benefits within the past year have actually increased the 99er population.

The total unemployment rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that includes survey estimates of those not actively looking for work for various job-market related reasons, put the number of "discouraged" unemployed at 0.6 percent. They also estimate that the "marginally attached," those available but not looking for work, make up an additional 1.0 percent. That number, if it were reflective of the 99ers, would suggest that their population has decreased in the past year.

But, then, how to explain the growing number of high school and college graduates unable to find employment and/or not looking for work?

Within the numbers lies a qualifier: The numbers are estimates. Given historical governmental propensities for downplaying adverse statistics and news, it might be fair to say that the numbers in the official unemployment rate might be optimistic, based as they are on the number of people actually on the unemployment rolls and several peripheral surveys.

But the addition of 3.3 million individuals to the ranks of the 99ers is not optimistic, estimate or not.

And if legislation is not passed to reauthorize the unemployment benefits extensions, the economic indicators that have enjoyed a general slow but upward climb for the past couple years will not continue to be optimistic, either.

(photo credit: US Information Agency, Wikimedia Commons)

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