Pia Toscano has held the Las Vegas edge for the last couple of weeks among the "American Idol" hopefuls. After last week's shocking reveal that Casey Abrams had been voted off the show, however, odds and power rankings might not mean that much. Abrams had had fairly good odds to win the competition.
The "American Idol" Top 11 hit the stage in Hollywood Wednesday evening, the same group that went out to perform "Motown" hits last week. After the judges decided to use their one and only "Save" of the season to keep the creative crooner in the competition for at least one more week, he and his ten fellow contestants will be challenged to perform from the song catalog of the legendary Sir Elton John.
But before that, where does everyone stand going in. Of course, Casey Abrams finished last in the voting last week, but that means absolutely nothing going into a second week of voting. In fact, he will likely not make the Bottom 3 due to "American Idol" viewer voter backlash.
Bodog.com has Pia Toscano still the most likely contestant to win Season 10. She is now at 2/1 odds. She is following closely by rocker James Durbin at 7/2 odds, then country boy Scotty McCreery at 9/2. The Top 5 show Lauren Alaina next at 5/1 odds and Casey Abrams (because Las Vegas does not see him going home just yet, either) tied with Jacob Lusk at 15/2. The contestant with the longest shot? Haley Reinhart and Naima Adedapo both ring it at 50/1 odds to win, doubling Stefano Langone, who is next to last with 25/1 odds.
The power rankings as composed by TV Guide follow the oddsmakers pretty well. Ignoring the Casey Abrams derailment from last week, they, too, place Haley Reinhart and Naima Adedapo in the bottom -- at Numbers 11 and 10, respectively. Pia Toscano has the lead, with James Durbin right behind. But the Guide has Georgia teen Lauren Alaina all the way back at No. 6, not at No. 4 (held by Casey). Jacob pulls the No. 5 spot.
As surprising as last week's ultimate results might have been, Haley Rinehart's non-inclusion in the Bottom 3 for the first time was also somewhat of a surprise (even though her performances may not have warranted the placement). Her lackluster reviews by the judges no doubt contribute to the lack of faith oddsmakers and the critics have in her chances of going all the way.
So whose the person to beat? Pia Toscano looks like Season 10's frontrunner, consistently nailing down the ballads -- which she has promised to forego for awhile. And she looks like what one would expect of a true "American Idol" -- beautiful, poised, and can sing anything. James has proven to be a surprise as her main contender up to the Top 11 point of the contest, rocking out with a powerful voice and showing that he can be versatile as well.
The biggest disappointment, however, might be the bland performances produced thus far from Lauren, who was an early frontrunner ("The One," judge Steven Tyler said after her audition in Nashville). But Lauren seems to have a winning personality that could, with the help of a couple stellar performances, place her back in the Top 3 with ease. It is definitely Scotty's personality that has him chosen as a favorite, his country mannerisms and aw-shucks boyishness gaining traction even when his performances are ho-hum.
Odds To Win American Idol Season 10 (Top 11)
Pia Toscano -- 2/1
James Durbin -- 7/2
Scotty McCreery -- 9/2
Lauren Alaina -- 5/1
Casey Abrams -- 15/2
Jacob Lusk -- 15/2
Paul McDonald -- 15/1
Thia Megia -- 20/1
Stefano Langone -- 25/1
Naima Adedapo -- 50/1
Haley Rinehart -- 50/1
Top 11 Power Rankings (TV Guide)
1. Pia Toscano
2. James Durbin
3. Scotty McCreery
4. Casey Abrams
5. Jacob Lusk
6. Lauren Alaina
7. Paul McDonald
8. Thia Megia
9. Stefano Langone
10. Naima Adedapo
11. Haley Rinehart
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