On completion of three years in power the UPA Government at Centre looks to an uncertain future ahead as it has failed to make a mark in several fields particularly in serving the needs of the (Aam Admi), or the common man who was to get relief. The country has continued to grow economically at the rate of 8.5 per cent, but the results of economic progress are not trickling down to serve people at the bottom particularly in agriculture sector and for urban poor.

While the farmers are yet to receive the benefit of large allocation for the sector or easy credit, the urban poor are being hit by high inflation rate. The result is that there is a general disappointment among the people whose hopes were aroused when the UPA Government launched a common minimum program to serve the poor sections of the society. This has resulted in poor performance of the ruling party in elections held during this period. It has lost Bihar, Uttrakhand, Punjab and suffered setbacks in Maharashtra and Delhi local elections. The performance in U.P. has been disappointing despite a major effort by Mr. Rahul Gandhi, a young MP who tried to revive the party fortunes single handedly.

The results is, that UPA today faces a major challenge as it has to do things differently in the next two years if it has to check the downslide. It cannot revive its appeal by merely surviving and claiming that it has given a stable Government. People would expect some major mid course corrections to be convinced that the present Government has the will or the capacity to take decisive action to make for more even distribution of gains in the economy as a result to rapid progress.

The future progress will be judged on three basic criteria that is reforms in agriculture sector or a second green revolution, control of inflation and job creation. These three tests will decide the success or failure of the present system and none of these is going to be easy. The Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has indicated that his Government plans to take a major initiative in agriculture sector which indicates that the need for it has been felt but will it work or not will be known only once the results come in.

The problem with the present spurt in economic activity is that mere boom in stock exchanges or growing foreign exchange reserves have no meaning for farmers suffering under burden of debts after a crop failure or on account of lack of rain or prices falling in the market where terms of trade have been turned against him. It is true that in case he turns to new cash crops like vegetables, fruits and cultivation of bio-products he could come out of the present cycle of poverty, but this will require a major effort at extension of technical help to the farmers and educating him.

The same holds good to a large extent for the employment market. India is getting into a cycle where in certain areas we are facing acute shortage of trained manpower which includes service sectors, IT sectors and few other sun shine sectors. On the other hand we are producing a large number of people from ill-managed institutes who have the degrees but are not employable because they lack the basic skills. India has to recognize that in a present world where jobs, industries and other skills are transferred from one country to another in matter of days. So unless we improve the quality of our manpower the recent success achieved by us will not last. If one looks at the past how Ireland, once a hot destination for outsourcing suddenly disappeared from the scene should be a lesson for us. At present countries like Russia or other East European countries as well as other countries in South Asia are catching up fast and in case we do not wake up in time this boom which came as a result of outsourcing may burst anytime.

What India needs today is not quotas in institutes to train manpower, but quality education without which the products will become unemployable. Can India make this change? The present Government needs a massive program for helping the poor and backward by giving them, better education and better opportunities. The best example to be followed is Bihar which may be a backward State when judged by all known tests, but gets maximum representations in services for which Union Public Service Commission conducts tests. This happens because of good training institutes and hard work. This could become the mantra for backwards in any part of the country.

The recent polls in UP have shown that to make caste alone as criteria for backwardness will be a major folly. As Dalits, Brahmins and Muslims have combined to place Mayawati in power because in a set up dominated by caste these people had no place when Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh was ruling the State, education, training and extension services alone can change India and the Government would have achieved a lot if it lays foundation for the same in next two years. - Dipayan Mazumdar and Associates