A new model that couples biotic and abiotic processes in intertidal zones predicts that salt marshes in Italy's Venice Lagoon may not survive future climate changes. These projections of the model developed by study authors Marani et al. stem from current forecasts of sea-level rise.
Tidal ecosystems and landforms in lagoons and estuaries manifest extremely high biodiversity and rates of primary productivity. Because these zones are associated with important socio-economic activities sustaining a large population worldwide, their evolution through different climate-change scenarios could bear important consequences for regional economies of several areas. Applying their new model, the authors find that vegetation type, disturbances to microbial biofilm, sediment availability, and marine transgressions or regressions drive evolution of such systems. Besides making specific predictions for the Venice Lagoon's future, the model also reproduces empirical observations from the lagoon's past, spanning the last five centuries.
American Geophysical Union
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