On the same day that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) announced a $2.1 billion profit in the first quarter of 2009, better jobless numbers were announced, with new claims dropping for the second straight week.
On Thursday, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 from a revised 663,000 the previous week, the second week in a row initial jobless claims have fallen. This should not be seen as a sign the recession is over: a year ago claims stood at 369,000. Ouch.
At the same time, finding a new job is no easier. The total number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls rose 172,000, cresting above 6 million for the first time. That's the highest number on record since 1967.
However, the figure on initial unemployment claims of 610,000 was significantly lower than analysts' expectations (655,000) and the lowest level since late January.
Unfortunately, minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting released earlier this month seems to forecast still more pain. The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate will probably "rise more steeply into early next year before flattening out at a high level over the rest of the year," while at the same time many private economists expect the rate will hit 10% by year's end.
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