World Health Organization Raises Swine Flu Alert Level to 4

A phase 4 alert means sustained human-to-human transmission is causing outbreaks in at least one country. And we all know which country is experiencing the brunt of those issues, Mexico, which on Monday raised the suspected swine flu death toll to 149.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director for health security and environment at the WHO indicated that closing borders wouldn't help. He said:

“At this time, it’s clear that most of the swine H1N1 activity is taking place in North America … but in this age of global travel where people [travel] around in airplanes so quickly, there is no region where this virus could not spread."

THis comes on the same day that the European Union warned against non-essential travel to North American.

According to the WHO's website, phases 4 to 6 are as follows:

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.