Grow old with me, the best is yet to be; that's a famous quote from Robert Browning. Nouriel Roubini is professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics would say to job seekers, "the worse it yet to come."
As Roubini notes in an op-ed, unemployment has reached 10.2 percent in the U.S. When including underemployment, which is people who are employed part-time, or in jobs that are below their usually work level, as well as those who have completely quit looking, the percentage reaches an amazing 17.5%.
None of the jobless numbers are a surprise; they were released some time ago. However, what Roubini says, and what others have also been concerned about, is that despite the fact that it appears Wall Street and financial firms are on the mend, unemployment rates are not improving.
Companies are still wary of hiring. The problem is, and this has been stated before, that Americans are now a nation of buyers. We manufacture very little. If we don't buy, we are useless for the global economy.
At the same time, we aren't buying. Americans are afraid to buy because of potential job less. Thus, an endless circle. Companies won't hire because goods aren't selling. Consumers won't buy because of potential layoffs.
Roubini notes that history shows high unemployment will continue. As he said, the last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued until June of 2003; a similar trend held true for the 1990-91 recession.
The worst news Roubini offers is the following: he believes it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more. Worse, he is concerned about a double-dip recession.
Roubini adds that a second round of stimulus is needed. This has been echoed by those who follow the Keynesian theory of economics: in times like this, deficits be damned; rack up deficits by spending to stimulate job growth.
Despite GOP sentiment, this is exactly what other countries have done in this global recession, so the U.S. has not been alone in this. And, as Roubini says, it should do it again. If not, he said the future may be bleaker than he already forecasts.
Written by Michael Santo
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