In the wake of the devastating earthquake in Haiti that happened about three weeks ago, the country is considering moving its capital, Port-au-Prince. The reason is that Haiti's official seismologist, who predicted the recent earthquake, has warned that an even greater quake is likely to hit Port-au-Prince within the next 20 years.
Claude Prepetit is Haiti's seismologist. He had previously done the calculations, and he knew a quake was coming, although quite naturally he did not know exactly when. For years he had warned of a quake, which he estimated to be around 7.2 on the Richter scale (the actual quake was 7.0).
When the quake struck, and in its aftermath, Prepetit lost his brother-in-law and many friends. He also lost his father-in-law.
The next quake, he estimates, will happen within the next 20 years, and will be even strong. He estimates it to range in the area of 7.6 on the Richter scale.
The Richter scale is logarithmic. Thus, each whole number increase in magnitude represents a tenfold increase in measured amplitude of the quake. This means, for example, a quake measuring 7.0 will be ten time as strong as one measuring 6.0. In terms of energy, each whole number increase in magnitude corresponds to the release of approximately 31 times more energy.
Given Prepetit's forecast, the question now becomes, should Haiti even consider rebuilding in its current location. The United Nations estimates that 75 percent of the city will have to be rebuilt.
Any question over Prepetit's accuracy with regards to his new forecast were seemingly ended when French seismologists confirmed his forecast, at least for strength purposes. However, timing is still the issue. Quite naturally, there's no way to forecast when the next major quake will occur.
An example of what went wrong with prior rebuilding of Port-au-Prince happened in the 1700s. An earthquake destroyed the city in 1751, and the survivors rebuilt the city. The next major quake came in 1770.
Written by Michael Santo
HULIQ.com
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