Warren Buffett Becomes a China Bull

“The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly.”

Looks like Jim Rogers isn’t the only legendary investor who’s bullish on the prospects of China. According to The Motley Fool’s Tim Hanson -- his comments coming by way of Investorazzi.com -- Warren Buffett is a big fan as well. Hanson wrote:

"Every so often, Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett meets with business-school students. Because so few people ever get to sit down with the Oracle of Omaha, those who do have a responsibility to take good notes. The folks at The Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing in London, Ontario, did just that…"

According to those notes, in addition to his usual advice to think long-term, read a lot, and take advantage of market volatility, Buffett said, “The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly.”

That means “Buy China,” and that’s because, as National Geographic Editor-in-Chief Chris Johns wrote in a recent column, “The shock waves of its growth reverberate in every corner of the globe.”

China Set to Become Second-largest Retail Market: Study
June 25, 2008

In related news, in a new study, "China's Retail Landscape," consulting and market research firm TNS Retail Forward forecasts that China will sustain double-digit nominal retail sales growth in the next five years despite short-term pressures. This is expected to push the size of the retail market in China to more than $1.4 trillion by 2012, surpassing Japan to become the second-largest retail market in the world behind the United States.

The report, published in the Global Retailing Program of the Retail Forward Intelligence System, also assesses China's retail landscape, profiles the country's leading retailers, and delivers shopper insights about the Chinese shopper.

"While China's short-term retail outlook is vulnerable because of pressures ranging from inflation to heightened government regulation, the continued entry of new retail banners is evidence that China remains one of the best retail opportunities in the world, with strong growth forecast across retail categories," said Frank Badillo, senior economist and manager of the company's Global Retailing Program.

Contributing to a tougher operating environment and some consolidation in the near term are: inflation and speculative pressures, growing government emphasis on product safety and environmental regulation, and heightened Chinese nationalism, TNS Retail Forward noted.

Regardless, a continued influx of new retail banners suggests there remains opportunity for entry into China. The continuing opportunity in China also is evident in the stepped-up expansion plans by a broad spectrum of retailers.

Foreign retailers in China continue to plan for aggressive expansion but more often have fallen behind plan. "Carrefour's small-format focus has helped give it an advantage over Wal-Mart's big-format focus," according to Badillo. "While Taiwan-based RT-Mart, a partner of Auchan, has quietly built up a sizeable presence in China, Tesco is only now gearing up its expansion. Kingfisher is reorganizing and Best Buy is ramping up slowly."

TNS Retail & Shopper Insights research indicates that China's new retail formats are drawing strong interest from Chinese shoppers, but there remains room for inroads against local neighborhood markets -- which remain popular among Chinese shoppers.

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