The first votes in the Iowa caucuses will be counted on Thursday night. The caucuses, in which Democrats and Republicans get to choose their presidential candidates, are the traditional pre-elections leading up to the presidential elections in November. Both parties have large numbers of candidates eager to take over from President George W Bush. Voters in the state of Iowa are to give a first indication of who has the best chances of taking up residence in the White House.
"I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message..." - One of a veritable barrage of election messages that Iowa viewers have been bombarded with in the past few months. The spot continues:
"Stop giving tax breaks to companies that are moving overseas. Give those tax breaks to companies that are investing here in Iowa, in the United Stated of America. Enough is enough." Barack Obama is the first Afro-American candidate who stands a serious chance of winning the presidency.
The latest opinion poll carried out by the Des Moines Register, Iowa's leading newspaper, shows that Mr Obama will enter the Iowa Democratic caucus as favourite.
Clinton
Other polls still show Hilary Clinton as being in the lead. In the closing phase of her campaign, the New York Senator greatly emphasises her political experience, which she perceives as her trump card in the fight against the much younger Obama who began his carreer as US Senator for the state of Illinois in 2005:
"When George Bush decided after the 04-election he wanted to privatise social security, I said: not now, not ever. And we stopped him. As long as I have anything to say about it no one will be able to privatise or undermine the promise of social security going forward."
Somewhat overshadowed by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, John Edwards may present a surprise at the Iowa caucus. He was the 2004 Democratic candidate for the vice presidency. Several polls show him neck-and-neck with the two favourites.
Activism
John Edwards amassed a fortune as a lawyer bringing lawsuits against insurance companies and other big corporations on behalf of ordinary citizens. He has pledged to continue his activism on behalf of the common man and against the greed of big business if he's elected to the White House:
"Corporate grief won't be stopped without a president who fights for you. Saving the middle class will be an epic boon and that's the fight I was born for."
However, if John Edwards fails to win a clear victory in Iowa he will have blown his chances for the remainder of the pre-elections. In this respect, Iowa is a vital springboard for the rest of the election campaign.
Republicans
Among Republican candidates, Mitt Romney has most to lose. He is in fourth place in the national polls, and, right from the start, has bet everything on an Iowa victory to convince Republican voters across the US that he, as a conservative standard bearer following in the footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan, is their best choice.
Romney has some prominent advocates, such as Robert Bork, Ronald Reagan's conservative nominee to the supreme court. Judge Bork features in another election message in which an old Reagan favourite expresses their support for Mitt Romney. Without much success, as he lost his lead to the conservative evangelical candidate Mike Huckabee.
Many of the Republicans voting in the Iowa caucus are from a conservative Christian background and have more in common with the Baptist Reverend and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee than with the Mormon Mitt Romney, the former governor of the liberal bulwark of Massachusetts. In the Republican camp, Thursday's fight will be mainly between these two candidates, with the loser facing an uphill battle for the rest of the campaign.
Front-runner
In national polls taken among Republican voters, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is still in the lead. He has chosen not to go all-out in Iowa, nor in New Hampshire, where the primaries are the next important round of elections. Mr Giuliani hopes to score major victories in pre-elections in Florida later this month and in several other big states on 5 February.
However, he is losing out on a lot of publicity benefiting the candidates taking part in the Iowa caucus. Recent opinion polls show a clear loss of momentum for Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign.
By Reinout van Wagtendonk *RNW translation (gsh), Copyright Radio Netherlands
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