We are going to make a prediction based on the latest polls out of Iowa. But we are using several different ways to analyze this race. First Method Predicts Huckabee and Obama Iowa Caucus winning results.
First, we used a linear regression in which we used the date as Variable X and the poll numbers for each of the candidates as Variable Y. Then we predict what the results would be on January 3rd, 2008. For the date, we had to use the middle date of the poll. For example, a poll that was taken from 12/27 to 12/30 would have a middle date of 28.5.
So here is what we got:
Mike Huckabee 29
Mitt Romney 25
John McCain 15
Fred Thompson 10
Ron Paul 10
Rudy Giuliani 8
Barack Obama 31
Hillary Clinton 29
John Edwards 25
Bill Richardson 5
Joe Biden 4
Ron Paul did not break double digits in any of the polls that we used in our calculations but he had the strongest correlation in the data among Republican candidates and the trend for him was upwards. So here is why he is getting double digits in our poll.
Fred Thompson is going up big time in the Zogby tracking poll, up from 8%. So for this reason we expect him to beat Ron Paul for fourth place. John McCain's surge will get him a strong third place finiish here in Iowa.
Of the 7 pollsters that we looked at doing polls in the past week, Mitt Romney had actually won 4 of them so it is bold for us to sit here and expect Huckabee to win.
For the data we used in this method, go to our cross-posted article on PresidentPolls2008.com.
Second Method: Zogby Tracking Poll
We wanted to make use of the Zogby Tracking poll because it gives us great insight as to how the race has been moving from day to day. Here are the Republican results we have to work with.
Republicans – Iowa Tracking
12-29/1-1-08
12–28/31
12–27/30
12–26/29
Huckabee
28%
29%
29%
29%
Romney
26%
25%
27%
28%
McCain
12%
12%
13%
11%
Thompson
12%
10%
8%
8%
Giuliani
7%
8%
7%
8%
Paul
9%
7%
7%
8%
Hunter
1%
1%
1%
1%
Undecided
6%
6%
6%
6%
The only real result that we can make out of this tracking poll is that Fred Thompson is gaining steadily from 8% to 12% in just a matter of a few days. Our first method has him barely making double digits but it could be that the first method puts too much emphasis on past results when Thompson was polling lower than the results suggest now.
The second result that this tracking poll attempts to state is that John McCain's support in Iowa has not been increasing despite the fact that it is increasing in New Hampshire and nationally.
Based on the results of these polls we must make this the order:
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Fred Thompson
John McCain
Ron Paul
Rudy Giuliani
Here is what the Democratic race looks like according to Zogby.
Democrats – Iowa Tracking
12-29/1-1-08
12–28/31
12–27/30
12–26/29
Clinton
28%
30%
30%
31%
Obama
28%
26%
26%
27%
Edwards
26%
25%
26%
24%
Richardson
7%
5%
5%
5%
Biden
4%
5%
5%
5%
Dodd
1%
1%
1%
1%
Kucinich
1%
1%
1%
<1%
Undecided
5%
6%
6%
6%
Although Obama has been 4% behind in the first 3 of the tracking polls, he wound up in a dead heat against Clinton in the fourth of them. So Obama would have the momentum to finish above Clinton. Here is the order of finish we project.
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Source: USAElectionPolls.com Release
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