A Look at Real Estate Prospects of Russia for 2008

At a press conference Monday, President of Leader, a Moscow-based finance and construction company, Vladimir Voronin, addressed journalists with his insights on real estate perspectives for the region of Moscow in 2008.

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Although some have expressed concern that the moratorium on high rise development would drastically slow the development of the real estate market in Moscow, Voronin reassured listeners that it is still growing favorably and that he expects this trend to continue for another 10 to 15 years, but more slowly. After recognizing that something had to be done against the housing scarcity in the city, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov announced last year that available land would be used to build municipal dwellings rather than commercial complexes.

While Voronin acknowledged that removing all "more or less liquid land from competitive tendering" has in fact caused the market to shrink by 10 percent since last year, growth opportunities exist particularly in industrial zones - currently exclusion zones due to their proximity to power line complexes (LEP). Moving these facilities outside of the city would open up a great deal of space for the real estate market. Of course, removal of LEP complexes raises the price of construction. Due to increased indirect costs of construction, Voronin added, the market will continue to grow, but not at the same pace as two or three years ago and "the price of residential space will only become more expensive" in the future.

As the most fundamental obstacles for real estate in the Moscow region, Voronin identified bureaucracy and the physical scarcity of building materials. Although the production of materials is actively developing, he does not expect to see a breakthrough in the next five years.

As a recommendation to private real estate investors in the region, Voronin remarked that currently economy class residential space remains the most liquid with nevertheless a high potential for growth. However, he noted, "A more interesting idea is investment in "gated communities". According to Voronin, these communities carry with them a higher margin of profitability, but their attractiveness depends on the length of the desired commitment, as they are less liquid.

Voronin additionally answered questions on the use of "unqualified Gastarbeiter" from countries of the former Soviet Union. He emphasized that unqualified workers - neither from CIS countries nor from Moscow and the surrounding area - are justifiable. Possibly in reaction to the clear discrimination posed in the question - which equated Gastarbeiter to unqualified workers - Voronin mentioned that guest workers statistically drink less than construction workers originally from the Moscow region, as they arrive for a predetermined amount of time to earn money and return home.

Alcoholism remains one of the most serious causal factors for not only poor work, but also fatal accidents on the job. Voronin further pointed out that less than one percent of Muscovites aged 18-20 seek employment in construction. From the 800,000 official migrants the migration services have planned for 2008, estimates anticipate that only 160,000-170,000 will come to the construction sector. He also commented that "if a program for the construction of municipal housing or commercial property exists, there is no way to avoid hiring high-grade guest workers."

In response to a question about the impact of the global financial crisis on the real estate market, Voronin labeled the situation "a double-edged sword": On the one hand, bank turbulence may cause growth in this area, as it causes investors to shift their money from banks into the real estate market, as did 50 percent of Russian investors during the bank crisis in 2006. On the other hand, appreciation of cash assets, increased difficulty receiving a mortgage and high interest rates cause slower growth for real estate. Nevertheless, he added, "in Moscow and in Russia, the demand of willing buyers is still not being met and in 10 years will still not be met."

By C. Anne Shupe of Moscow News

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