Experts are hyping the race as a rematch between Kentucky Derby hopefuls Colonel John and El Gato Malo, which top the morning line odds at 2-1 and 5-2, but there are several dangerous horses flying under the radar that could pose a threat in this 1 1/8-mile contest.

Bob Black Jack smoked his competition at 6 and 7 furlongs before falling to third in his last race at 1 1/16 miles. However, that third place finish came only 1 3/4 lengths behind Georgie Boy, a leading Triple Crown candidate and potential Santa Anita Derby favorite which was forced to withdraw from today’s race with a pulled muscle. Bob Black Jack also convingly bested WinStar Derby post-time favorite Winsome Charm by 3 1/2 lengths.

The second major threat is Polonius, which lead wire to wire in his only 1-mile outing on March 15. Unfortunately, how this horse–which has run only two sprint races in addition to the one route–will fare with an extra furlong to go is anyone’s guess.

Shore Do rounds out the list of possible challengers to the two favorites, but remains almost hopelessly outclassed even though his trainer, Brian Koriner, is over 50% in the money. (The only thing really hot about Shore Do is his jockey, the sexy Chantal Sutherland.) The probable also-rans in today’s derby are Yankee Bravo, Singature Move, Coast Guard, On the Virg, Meetingwithdestiny, and Rosso Corsa.

Anyways, here’s how I see today’s feature race taking shape, assuming there are no scratches:

Bob Black Jack and Polonius–which will, most likely, jump to an early lead of five lengths or more by first call–should be followed by Coast Guard until the race enters the final turn. With about 2 furlongs to go, Coast Guard will begin to fade as Colonel John and El Gato Malo push things into high gear. Bob Black Jack and Polonius will reach the mile mark at a little over 1:35 with El Gato Malo tearing ass from four or five lengths behind the leader but one or two lengths ahead of Colonel John. Down the stretch, with maybe half a furlong left in the race, El Gato Malo will pull away from Colonel John, overtake Polonius–which should be running out of gas–at second, and pull to within two lengths of Bob Black Jack. Unfortunately, for many bettors, Bob Black Jack will stave off El Gato Malo’s heroic final charge by half a length to join Pyro and Big Brown as this year’s Kentucky Derby prep sensations!

Now, that, my friends, is how to make a bold prediction!

So, here’s my final order of finish for the 2008 Santa Anita Derby:

1. Bob Black Jack (1:48.6); 2. El Gato Malo; 3. Colonel John; 4. Polonius; 5. Shore Do; 6. Yankee Bravo; 7. On the Virg; 8. Coast Guard; 9. Rosso Corsa; 10. Signature Move; 11. Meetingwithdestiny.

This post is also a 1-20 favorite to make me look very foolish by 4 p.m. (MT) today.

Source: By The Broderland Totalisator