World trade growth could ease to 4.5 percent in 2008 as a sharp economic slowdown in developed countries will only be partly offset by strong gains in emerging economies, the WTO said.
But if turmoil in the financial markets continues and developed economies see a more pronounced slowdown, trade growth could yet be cut further to "significantly less than the 4.5 percent predicted," the World Trade Organisation warned in a report on prospects for growth in 2008 on Thursday.
Global trade grew by 8.5 percent in 2006 but slipped to 5.5 percent in 2007.
This year, the rate of growth will largely depend on how soon developed countries can shake off the financial turmoil currently dogging the markets.
If market turbulence is contained soon, world output could still grow at 2.6 percent and world trade at above 4.0 percent, said the WTO.
This is derived from a projection that developed markets would grow at 1.1 percent, while developing economies expand at above 5.0 percent.
"Uncertainty arises as to how long developing countries can maintain a strong pace of economic growth in the face of sluggish demand in the major developed markets and rising inflationary pressures," said the report.
Should a more pronounced economic slowdown take hold in developed countries, then trade growth could be cut "much more sharply, to significantly less than the 4.5 percent predicted."
Souce: DDNEWS
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