The President Of Azerbaijan In Hard Position

One must not rule out that just Turkish Diplomacy has helped him to learn such kind of nuances, though being a graduate of Moscow State Institute of International relations Aliev, has as good judge of politics as his late father who had actually agreed to the suggestion of the mediators in Ki West but returning to Baku broke his promise with a motivation “of being pressured at home”.

That time both the mediators and the Armenian side understood elder Aliev as the last hadn’t a lifelong presidential mandate. As to his son, something is behind comprehension. The opposition is destroyed, he is enabled with “constitutional right” to be elected as president for countless times and a process of “constitutional reforms” is launched throughout the country. In case the reforms are fulfilled, what is undoubtedly realistic, all Azerbaijani”elective” officials will get rid of the headache upon no need to keep their offices permanently, more than for two terms.

The matter with ombudsman and Prosecutor General is clear, others are waiting for their turn. So, it’s hardly probable to speak about “putting pressure”.

Apparently, Aliev has wrong impression about the negotiations.
The agitation turmoil rose after St. Petersburg meeting comes to prove that factor. Everybody was unanimously assuring that in the beginning of July the Presidents of United States, France and Russian will get together, Armenia’s and Azerbaijani leaders will be invited an the three “will put pressure on Serzh Sargsyan”. Judging from the fact that there is a lack of free press as well as free-thinking politicians or experts in Azerbaijan, we can state that the turmoil was instructed by President Aliev. Some time passed and Azeris realized that US President is visiting Moscow with a differently another agenda, that priority in the South Caucasus for the US is the Georgian issue, at last no “Moscow summit” is planned and nobody intends “to put pressure on Serzh Sargsyan.

Moreover, statements from Washington had an effect of cold shower on Azerbaijani enthusiasm. First Mathew Bryza stated that the meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely to concur with Osama’s visit to Moscow, then Deputy State Secretary Philip Gordon noted in Yerevan that Nagorno Karabakh settlement must be based on all principles of the international law.

In such a situation Aliev had nothing but “to put all the idlers into service”.

Novruz Mamedov was the first to speak and in fact refute Foreign Minister Mamedyarov’s estimation of St. Petersburg meeting as “constructive” confirming “some progress”. Being responsible for the foreign policy of the presidential administration Mamedov certainly expresses Ilham Aliev’s position. So another question rises. Has Mamedyarov expressed his own or Aliev’s views?

Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov tried to make some clarifications into the matter stating that Azerbaijan has principally agreed with the suggestions of the mediators with reserve that they are expecting “some changes in Armenian position”. The conclusion has apparently nothing in common with the reason as the Armenian position is built on “Madrid Principles”, those are the suggestions by the mediators and if Azimov himself accepts them his expectations are absolutely illogical.

So as usual Azerbaijan is confronting an alternative to resume or not the peaceful resolution of the conflict. The scales are pulled to “not” option. But a new question raises here - “What motivation”?
Official Baku has leveled its criticism at co-chairing states, particularly at France and generally international mediators. The idea of striping France of mediation mandate has been suggested in Azerbaijani parliament. French National Assembly Deputy Roshbluan’s visit to Nagorno Karabakh served as a pretext for the suggestion. But as Azerbaijani hysteria indicates Azerbaijani President has set a task to form“distrust” regarded to Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship. It’s no more credible to rely on the opposition as nobody will believe him stating that internal political escalations may occur in case of an agreement with Armenia. So the factor of “a wide public disaffection” is left to use.

What’s the perspective of using that card?

In other circumstances may be, but today it will hardly work as “Madrid Principles” must have generally pleased the Azerbaijani public. At least the mediators have the right to doubt Azerbaijani sincerity. That is why Ilham Aliev has chosen a “standby option. The Executive Secretary of the ruling party Ali Ahmedov has raised an idea of forming“parity” in Minsk Group. As Ahmedov thinks, one or some of the Co-Chairing states support Armenian position so Turkey should get a Co-Chairing mandate as well with the simplest conclusion ”to stand up for Azerbaijani interests”.

Ahmedov is certainly steping in for Ilham Aliev, his immediate boss, who has repeatedly assured Azerbaijani people that the Co-Chairing states recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan so “Armenia has nothing to do but accept the reality”. Does it mean that the President has deceived his people for years? There are not two truths. Either Ilham Aliev or Ali Ahmedov lies.

After all another nuance occurs. “Madrid Principles” imply a respect to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan without Nagorno Karabakh and some adjoining territories. Political scientist Zardusht Alizade, for example, says that “some five or six districts are proposed to return to Azerbaijan with the further return of refugees, exploitation of communications and definition of Nagorno Karabakh status through referendum is outlined as well”. As Alizade considers Armenian side stands on including the referendum date in the preliminary agreement. Azerbaijan opposes saying “that is a matter of future”. That is the key point of disagreement between the parties, Alizade says.

To speak on the reasonability of Turkey’s becoming of Minsk Group Co-Chairing state means an explicit hint at wrecking the talks as not only Armenia but the Co-Chairing states themselves will refuse the initiative. Turkey is anyway enough engaged with South Caucasian matters which actually does not correspond to the international prestige and potential of that state.

Let’s hope that Ilham Aliev will find enough strength to pass the way outlined by “nationwide leader” Heydar Aliev. Remind, Wasn’t the last expressing an opinion during discussions in the parliament that it’s unreasonable to think that Nagorno Karabakh will agree to return to the status as in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. Elder Aliev didn’t manage to fulfill the task due to the chief goal to crown his son as a president. His son is beyond that problem so long until he reaches his father’s age and Junior Heydar Aliev, his son, to that of presidential pretensions.

By Vahram Atanesyan, Chairman of the Nagorno Karabakh National Assembly Committee on International Relations.
Translated from Azg.am