The showdown was triggered by a controversial decision of the government last Wednesday to declare the military communication network of Hizbollah illegal. In addition, they had dismissed the Shiite chief security of Beirut International Airport, who allegedly had allowed Hizbollah to install many surveillance cameras around the airport.

The excuse

Hizbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah who, according to many commentators, was only looking for an excuse to shake up the balance of power in the country, stated in a press conference that he considered the government decision an outright 'Declaration of War'. He ordered his militias to take over Western Beirut and close down all main roads into the city, including those to the airport and the harbour. They also closed down all media organizations, in particular those affiliated to Druz leader Walid Jumblatt and Sunni leader Saad al-Hariri and his 'Future movement'.

The Lebanese army, the only national institution enjoying a degree of acceptability among all feuding parties in the country, has taken over maintaining law and order in the capital Beirut. But the military leaders have already warned that the army itself may become divided and even fall apart if the sectarian fighting continues.

Paralysed government
The Lebanese government led by Fouad Seniores seems to be overwhelmed and paralysed by the sudden escalation of the crisis. Meanwhile, its regional and international allies are hurrying to find a way out of the stalemate created in Lebanon.

It seems that Hasan Nasrallah, by using his military muscle, will again emerge stronger from a crisis which had initially been evoked to weaken him - just as he did after the Israeli war against Hizbollah in the summer of 2006.

The sectarian balance will never allow Hizbollah to dominate the whole country on its own, or together with the small group of its local allies. But if Lebanese politicians manage to avoid the civil war looming over the country by negotiating a compromise, this will definitely be in favour of Hizbollah. A political settlement will almost certainly revoke the government's measure against Hizbollah communication facilities and restore the Shite security office at the airport. And thus it will weaken the position of the pro-western government or perhaps even topple it in a few months' time.

International reactions
Hizbollah's relative victory will also strengthen the position of its regional allies Iran and Syria. Both countries are facing tough American pressure, and see Lebanon as a place to fight back away from their national territories. Hizbollah's bitter enemy Israel is struggling with its prime ministerial quagmire and appears unable to react.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which support the pro-western government in Lebanon, are calling for an urgent meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Saturday to restore the situation in Lebanon and prevent further escalation.

United Nations envoy Terje Roed Larsen told the UN Security Council that he was gravely concerned about further escalation of the situation. He also said that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has called upon all parties to cease hostilities and to reopen all roads in the country. The United States, the European Union, Germany and France also voiced their concern at the situation in Beirut and urged a calm and a peaceful resolution. Syria said the issue was an internal Lebanese affair, while Iran blamed "the adventurist interferences" of the United States and Israel for the violence.

Source: By Radio Netherlands