* McCain shows up in CA, site of a huge oil spill in 1969, and admits offshore drilling is a crock
* Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Scared) runs as an Obama ally
* Charlie Black gets pounded in the press for his terrorist remarks, stepping on McCain's environmental message and leading to some 'disarray' stories
* George W. Bush, the most unpopular President in polling history, gets his lowest job ratings ever: a 23% in the LA Times poll

Things aren't going well for the McCain camp when they can't even get their message out. Of course, not having a message other than "I'm a safe choice and the guy with the funny name is not" doesn't help. And it doesn't help when McCain's campaign looks inept (the green jello speech) and inarticulate even to his own supporters. After all, this is the guy who is selling himself as Commander-in-Chief material.

One point that the pundits (they hate giving up a narrative) cannot let go of is the idea that a terrorist attack helps McCain. Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow have nobly tried to point out it's an unknown as to whether an attack would reflect badly on those in power now (Bush, at 23% job approval, is still the President), or those who seek office, but it's a given that the discussion helps Republicans because national security always helps Republicans. The proof? A razor-thin election in 2004. Well, Bush won, right? So, that proves everything.

Of course, the latest ABC/WaPo poll has terrorism/national security being the most important issue in the election to a whopping 4% of the population, whereas in 2004 it was 19%. As Chris Cillizza points out,

The Gallup/USA Today sample group was asked whether they would be more likely to vote for "a candidate whose greatest strength is fixing the economy" or "a candidate whose greatest strength is protecting the country from terrorism."

Fifty-six percent of respondents chose a candidate who could heal the economy, while 39 percent opted for the candidate better able to keep them safe from terrorism.

And, hint to my journalist friends, it's not 2004 any more than Barack Obama is Michael Dukakis.

Dukakis himself blames his defeat on the time he spent doing gubernatorial work in Massachusetts during the few weeks following the Democratic Convention. Many believed he should have been campaigning across the country. During this time, his 17-point lead in opinion polls completely disappeared as his lack of visibility allowed Bush to define the issues of the campaign.

I don't think anyone will mistake the Obama campaign for the Dukakis campaign. And for those comparing the current Obama polling to Dukakis, don't forget the 17 points represented a post-convention bounce:

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

Now, I don't write these "Obama is doing well and McCain is not" stories because I think the election is a lock. I said ages ago that McCain can't win but Obama could surely lose, and that simply makes the point that the election is a referendum on the Republican way of governance. If his campaign and his supporters work hard, amd Obama can prove that's he's not an alien from Alpha Centauri, and if he doesn't spend the next two months trying to be the Governor of Massachusetts (see Dukakis entry), he's in. That's how bad the Republican brand is damaged.

Among Obama supporters, 81% say they are either "very" or "somewhat" enthusiastic about his candidacy (with 47% putting themselves in the "very" category).

Among McCain supporters, by contrast, only 45% characterize themselves as enthused by his candidacy (and just 13% of them are in the "very" camp). Perhaps more amazingly, a majority of the registered voters who plan to vote for McCain -- 51% -- describe themselves as "not too enthusiastic" or "not enthusiastic at all" about doing so.

In the end, like Gordon Smith, no matter how McCain twists and turns he's still a Republican, the once-proud party of President George (Mr. 23%) Bush. This year, the public is not likely to forget that – and they are not about to forgive McCain for it.

Reported by Daily Kos http://www.dailykos.com/