Barack Obama played the lower expectations card this weekend. "I am not sure that there is going to be some immediate political impact," he said of his eight day, eight nation tour last week. "I wouldn’t even be surprised if that in some polls that you saw a little bit of a dip as a consequence we have been out of the country for a week. People are worried about gas prices and home foreclosures."
There's really no danger of that and recent polling shows it. Gallup's Daily Tracking gave Obama a 9-point lead yesterday -- call it the "Berlin Bump." Daily tracking doesn't really mean much to me. It's a good way to track the immediate effects of news stories and new campaign strategies on the race, but it's not very predictive. Still, check this chart out:
Notice how that dark green line is always above the other one? Keep in mind that graphic only represents the last couple of weeks, but I went searching for a general election poll that showed McCain ahead at any point -- I couldn't find one. Of course, I gave up after a certain point; you're welcome to try. Good luck with that.
It's been a sort of theme of mine that the media have been pushing a "tight race" narrative in order to boost ratings with a more exciting race. John McCain can complain the media's in the tank for Obama all he wants, but the media is biased the way they've always been biased -- toward whatever helps them at the moment. Anyone who remembers the run-up to the invasion of Iraq will recall that the reporting was hopelessly biased toward war. Why? War's good for the news business. Yes, the media's biased. But it's not biased toward any particular political ideology -- it's biased toward whatever brings in the biggest audience.
Finally, I can back up what seems obvious to me. But I have to go to freakin' Australia to do it. The story of the ratings-biased media isn't going to get a lot of coverage in the US.
The Age:
Last week three political scientists declared that the US media's presentation of the election as being close was a myth.
Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in portraying the White House race as a cliffhanger.
Allow me a moment to do a quick dance in the end zone before we continue.
"While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3 1/2 months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed -- historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months -- point to a comfortable Obama-Democratic Party victory in November," the three wrote in Professor Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter.
"Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry," they went on. "Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favour, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up."
Of course, this explains why neither candidate is behaving as if it were close. For his part, Obama seems calm and comfortable with his position, while McCain seems desperate and flailing. Campaigns have learned long, long ago that you don't get your information from the media. They do their own internal polling and analysis and they see the landscape as it is, without filters. McCain's complaints of pro-Obama bias aren't something he believes, it's something he hopes you'll believe.
"John McCain complaining about media coverage is a little like an oil company complaining about profit margins," writes Media Matter's Jamison Foser. "Hard to believe, and even harder to feel much sympathy." John McCain has never had much of a media problem. Inviting reporters to backyard BBQs apparently does wonders for press coverage. The guy who has CBS Evening News editing out his screw-ups for him doesn't get to complain about media bias -- not with any credibility, anyway.
Not that there isn't a tight race out there -- it's just not the general election.
Multichannel News:
On the news front, Fox News Channel topped all cable news services, averaging 1.5 million viewers, but CNN (961,000, up 26%) and MSNBC (690,000, up 45%) posted double-digit gains, due mostly to its presidential primary coverage. Fox News regained the lead with the adults 25-to-54 demo in the period, after relinquishing the lead to CNN, which surged on its election coverage, in the first quarter. That marked the first time that CNN held that distinction with the news demo since 2001.
Look at those percentages for the last quarter; +26%, +45%. News channels are making out like bandits with their "tight race." People don't glue themselves to cable news to watch "America's Election '08: Barack Obama's Nearly Inevitable March to the White House." No, that headline would be practically guaranteed to boost the ratings of American Idol.
So a tight race it is. Neck and neck, a nailbiter right up to the wire. Tune in to your one source for news, paste yourself directly to the TV screen, and buy lots and lots of Orange Glo, HeadOn, and gold commemorative coins. One problem; here's what this "tight race" really looks like:
Austin-American Statesman:
Pollster John Zogby says Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a substantial lead over Republican John McCain in the Electoral College.
Zogby’s latest Electoral College map of the United States has Obama with 273 electoral votes to 146 for McCain.
McCain's down from 160. Zogby says 119 electoral college votes are still too close to call, so they aren't included in this count. But it doesn't matter -- you need 270 to win. Obama has the win by three even if all the still-competitive states go McCain.
I'm sorry, but that's nowhere near a "tight race."
By Wisco of Griper Blade http://griperblade.blogspot.com/
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Comments
#1 Failure of Media to Ask One Simple Question
John McCain just blew off speaking with thousands of minority journalists at the Unity '08 National Convention in Chicago all the while complaining he's not getting nearly enough news coverage. With all these journalists losing out on a great opportunity to meet with and write about the man, could it be they might be looking for something to report, a story to investigate?
Feel free to forward the following "news tip" to them. We can kill three birds with one stone - take mainstream media to task for not giving voters coverage on the full McCain, bring attention to a health issue affecting many veterans, and give Senator McCain the level of news coverage he craves.
Now, some in mainstream media even have the gall to question whether these minority journalists will pander to Obama because of race, while disregarding their own consistent record of filling us full with stories of McCain's war 'hero' trials and tribulations without giving us the full story. Journalists within the old school mainstream media indulge themselves with numerous articles on his status as a POW, inform us each and every time one vet speaks out about the torture of John McCain, even going into great detail about the types of torture and the number of years the man was tortured. Yet, it never enters their minds to ever ask the obvious question - "Could the man running for the highest office in the United States of America, a job with incredible stress, possibly suffer from PTSD?"
Google the general web with the words 'mccain ptsd' and over one half million hits will appear. Most are articles by veteran groups having to do with McCain's lack of support for veterans and his actions to shut down the MIA/POW investigations, while many others discuss the very real possibility he suffers from PTSD. Now go to Google News section and enter 'mccain ptsd'. To be fair, google the entire archive. Out of a grand total of approximately 80 hits, you will be lucky to pull up one or two articles addressing this issue.
As you can see, there is NO mainstream media coverage questioning whether John McCain may suffer from PTSD or perhaps LOSS. They are more than willing to write about the details of McCain's torture but not the probable result of said torture.
“Among U.S. servicemen taken captive during the Korean War, as many as nine out of 10 survivors may suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental disorders more than 35 years after their release" [ psychologist Patricia B. Sutker of the New Orleans Veterans Administration Medical Center and her colleagues report in the January AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY]
McCain has a nine out of ten chance of having PTSD, displays many of the symptoms, yet no one in mainstream media will question him, a candidate for Commander in Chief, a man who has an infamous history of an out of control temper who refuses to release his full military medical records to the general press.
Nine out of ten - Anyone willing to take book on the possibility John McCain does not suffer from ptsd? Call me, I need gas money.
'Post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, can result from wartime trauma such as suffering wounds or witnessing others being hurt. Symptoms include irritability or outbursts of anger, sleep difficulties, trouble concentrating, extreme vigilance and an exaggerated startle response.'
http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSN17282413
http://ptsd.about.com/od/symptomsanddiagnosis/a/PTSDsymptoms.htm
Before the Iraq invasion, many of us begged mainstream media to fully question the history and events leading us into war. They refused. To their credit, however, they 'apologized' years later for their failure to fully report these events. Today, we ask them to help the voters answer one simple question: "Is John McCain emotionally fit for the most stressful job in our country, the President of the United States, our Commander in Chief?"
Journalists have a choice. They can continue to tiptoe around the elephant in the room, put a politician before country, violate the spirit of journalism and ignore the ethics that bind them, or they can do their job.
They can give us the full McCain.