Just as months of negotiations seemed destined to end in deadlock, Poland and the United States have struck a deal to base part of a controversial US missile defence system on Polish soil. With a little help from recent events in the Caucasus?
The deal covers the installation of 10 interceptor missiles, and is intended to offer protection from 2012 onwards against ballistic attacks by rogue states such as Iran and North Korea. The details are due to be thrashed out in the coming months but Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says the signing of the agreement means that both sides "have crossed the Rubicon".
"Nothing to do with Georgia"
The timing of the decision is striking to say the least, given the current political tensions between the US and Russia, heightened by the Russian military operation in Georgia. Prior to the deal's announcement, Poland's Defence Minister Bogdan Klich hinted that events in the Caucasus had made the Americans more amenable to Poland's conditions for an agreement "now that the Russians have proved not to be a stable partner".
Any such link was denied on Thursday evening by both US negotiator John Rood and the Polish government. "We agreed this negotiating phase a week ago ... which is to say before the events in Georgia," insisted Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Something in return
In July, Washington reached agreement with the Czech government about establishing a radar station within its borders (though the deal has yet to be approved by the Czech parliament). But negotiations with Warsaw did not proceed quite as smoothly.
Unlike the Czech Republic, Poland wanted something in return from the Americans: help to modernise its defence apparatus. The Poles argued that this would compensate for the security risks that the installation of the missile defence system brings with it.
It now looks like the Poles are reaping the rewards of their relative intransigence. The United States has agreed to contribute towards the modernisation of the Polish air force and the installation of Patriot missiles. In addition, a US garrison will be stationed in Poland until 2012. The official line is that these measures are intended to protect the missile defence system against "rogue states" but, in fact, Poland sees Russia as a greater threat.
Russian missiles
Russia is fiercely opposed to the arrival of the missile defence system and to a US military presence on Polish and Czech soil. The Kremlin has condemned the missiles as jeopardising the balance of security in the former Communist states and has repeatedly threatened to aim its missiles at Polish and Czech territory. For Poland, which borders on the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, this was an important reason to demand greater military compensation from the Americans.
One clause in the agreement also commits the US to giving Poland a guarantee of support in the event of an attack by a third party. As a member of NATO, Poland would then also be able to call on the aid of its North Atlantic allies. It is precisely for fear of offending Russian sensibilities that NATO has exercised considerable caution when it comes to positioning military infrastructure in Poland and other former-Communist states in Central Europe. Now Poland has found an alternative route to assuring itself of a US military presence. In the words of Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski:
"It's a visible sign of America's commitment to our security. The missiles are not directed against anybody. But it's something that we feel we deserve, being members of NATO for 10 years now and having very little in terms of NATO security infrastructure."
The thaw is over
Moscow argues that the timing of the deal to coincide with the crisis in Georgia proves that the missile defence system is aimed at Russia, not Iran. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is reported to have cancelled a September visit to Warsaw shortly after the announcement of the Polish-American deal.
An end seems to have come to the relative thaw in relations between Russia and Poland, which had even brought a solution to the drawn-out conflict over Polish food exports. Earlier this week, Poland's President Lech Kaczynski made it clear where his country stands on the conflict between Russia and Georgia. He slammed Russia's politics as "imperialist and revisionist" and said during his visit to the Georgian capital Tbilisi on Tuesday that Russia had "once again shown its true colours".
Reported by Radio Netherlands, written by Thijs Papôt
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