According to NABE President Elect, Lynn Reaser, “the great recession is over.” This announcement follows on the heels of FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement on September 18th that the recession is over. Apparently economists are reaching a concurrence about the state of the economy.
The NABE recently surveyed the top 44 professional forecasters about the recession. The outcome of the survey showed that 80% of those surveyed believe the economy is finally growing again, after four consecutive quarters of declines.
While the vast majority of business executives believe the recession is technically over, the recovery is likely to be moderate, “as the labor market struggles to create jobs.”
Approximately two thirds of the survey responders said they believe the housing market will hit the bottom this year, and that unemployment nationwide, will peak just above 10% early in 2010. However, they believe that businesses will begin rehiring next year, and by the end of 2010, unemployment will be back down to 9.5%. It seems that almost no one believes we will see jobs numbers at normal (5% unemployment) until 2012 or possibly even later.
The other obstacle to the recovery is the still tight credit market. Once credit loosens, especially for businesses, the pace of the recovery should pick up. Employers will be able to get short term credit to pay workers, who in turn will spend, and the recovery will arrive for all of us.
According to a press release for the public, from the NABE, “the good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation.”
Apparently Wall Street agrees with the NABE as the stock market has been rallying since it hit bottom in March 2009. While today is a federal holiday, and trading is light, the DOW still managed to hit a new intra-day high for the year earlier today.
Written by Shelby Bateson
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