El Nino means wetter cooler winter for much of the U.S.

An El Nino phenomenon is warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This shifts the pattern of tropical rainfall and changes the strength and position of the jet stream.

The NOAA has been tracking this El Nino since earlier this year. In July, it was forecast that this would be a mild El Nino, and would have little effect on the weather patterns. The forecast has been upgraded to moderate, which indicates more weather influence.

Current weather forecasts call for cooler than average temperatures across much of the Southeast, and much wetter than average forecasts for most of the south, and California. The normally wet and rainy Pacific Northwest will average up to 35% less rain. Some areas of the country that are usually not affected by equatorial Pacific waters, will very likely not feel much effect from this El Nino.

While El Ninos are responsible for storms and weather patterns that originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, other factors can override some of these patterns, and are not predictable more than a few days in advance. These include extreme cold and snowstorms that ride jet streams from the Arctic, and other winter snow storms that originate in the North Atlantic.

Because northern originating winter storms can arise suddenly, this El Nino forecast does not discuss how many or how severe winter snowstorms may be for the northern portion of the U.S. However, in general, in years of moderate to severe El Ninos, the winters are typically less wet and less severe across the northern part of the U.S.

Written by Shelby Bateson