It is always good news for us in Florida when the Case Schiller home price index tells the world that the housing market in our fair state is on a continuous track of improvement. Even more telling about the state of affairs in our state is that the Florida Consumer Confidence Index, which is just what it sounds like, also showed a modest increase.

It’s hard to believe it, but Florida homes sales have been on the rise now for the last 12 months. August marked a 28% increase in sales over July. So, despite any reports to the contrary, these sales figures show that Florida is still a place where people flock to live.

Stability in markets usually implies a good balance between supply and demand, and the residential real estate market is moving in that direction. However, while stable housing markets typically carry 7 months of inventory, we’re still carrying an average of about 9 months worth of homes. So while we’re closing in on stasis, we’re not quite there.

While the sales figures of low and middle tier homes in South Florida continue their rapid upward climb, and their prices creep up, sales and prices for high end, luxury homes continue to decline.

According to Peter Hooper, a chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., if the Fed and the government abruptly stop the two stimulus programs that are in place to help the recovery of the housing market the currently mortgage rates may go up by a half to one percentage point. Hooper is a former Fed official and refers to the First Time Home Buyer $8,000 dollar tax credit and Fed's buying of mortgage backed securities that has helped to keep today's mortgage rates low.

It’s time to buy Florida multi-family property for one simple reason: these properties are about to become less expensive. Of course, there’s a reason that this price drop will come about: temporary loss of some renters.

Today's mortgage rates came slightly down after the news that last week's rising loan rates have slowed the demand for the new mortgages and houses. The Mortgage Bankers Association said this morning that due to the shortened banking period of last week and the rising rates in the past few days the demand for new loans has dropped by eight percent.

If sales figures in South Florida are a trend indicator, it appears that more and more people are buying less and less in a house. Even those who might be able to afford a more luxurious property are looking at homes simply as places to live, rather than showy indicators of lifestyle.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said today that the recession “Is very likely over” but job losses will continue to rise. Isn’t that like saying, I am in better shape now but I am still getting fatter? Of all the statistics that we hear about there are a few that hit home more than others. For me, being a mortgage broker, the interest rate is still the most important number in my life.

According to media stories all over the country, the South Florida market, from West Palm Beach to Miami, is awash in overpriced condominiums, just waiting for eager buyers to snap them up for pennies on the dollar.

It’s evident in South Florida, as well as other areas of the country, that houses are moving faster, and inventory is decreasing. In fact, inventory levels are down to less than an 8 month supply. Home sales have increased for the fourth month in a row. Barring a barrage of foreclosure dumping by banks, we are seeing a leveling out of prices.

Earlier this month, I was willing to proclaim that we’d hit the bottom of the real estate market. Market reports from around the country are starting to catch up with me. This week several stated that they now believe the bottom is at hand.