More than 20 years of continuous measurements and a dose of "belief" yield discovery of subtle ocean currents that could dramatically improve forecasts of climate, ecosystem changes

University of Utah mathematicians have arrived at a new understanding of how salt-saturated ocean water flows through sea ice – a discovery that promises to improve forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks.

In the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian Seas, density and temperature differences cause cold, salty water to sink. Part of these dense water masses flow across the submarine sill between Iceland and Scotland.

The process of deep-water formation involves the sinking of aerated surface waters down to the bottom of the ocean. This process replenishes the deep ocean with oxygen, which is otherwise consumed by decomposition of organic material raining down from the surface waters where primary productivity occurs.

Monitoring the saltiness of the ocean water could provide an early indicator of climate change. Significant increases or decreases in salt in key areas could forewarn of climate change in 10 to 20 years time. Presenting their findings at a recent European Science Foundation (ESF) conference, scientists predicted that the waters of the southern hemisphere oceans around South Africa and New Zealand are the places to watch.